PHOTO: Southern Sudan leader Salva Kiir
By Elias Mhegera-January 2011
ALTHOUGH the decision for people in the Southern Sudan will be received wholeheartedly but there are warnings that secession could become a new trend in Africa.
Speaking to The Express exclusively, is senior lecturer in development studies at the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Prof Benedict Mongula who says it is not strange to see that Southern Sudanese will decide to secede due to internal dynamics of that vast nation.
He revisit the problem in a historical dimension saying that it has to a large extent been caused by the problem of distribution of populations during the scramble and partition of the African continent of 1984-85.
The don says the partition of Africa did not consider many factors like ethnic distribution, culture and religion. He says to a large extent Sudan had all these complexities which have made the country to run in turmoil from time to time.
Mongula says every citizen must have a right to determine what is better for them. For that matter it is good that they secede and later on they can negotiate in a new form of federation which is both fair and equitable to the two sides he reminds the extreme cases of shariah to the non Muslims during the era of Jaffar Nimeir.
This view is shared by Dr Aleck Chemponda a former lecturer at the UDSM, in international relations. He says the people of Southern Sudan have a right to secede since they have been humiliated in their own country for quite sometime.
Dr Chemponda however is quick to warn that other people might imitate and make secession a new political phenomenon in Africa. Already there are similar secession attempts by Kabinda in Angola where there is a Chinese presence as in South Sudan, and in the Copper Belt in Zambia there are similar attempts.
John Salaita a retired lecturer in international relations and global peace studies says the move is positive and negative, Positive in the sense that circumstances in southern Sudan were beyond toleration but also it is negative because of its spill over effect.
He concurs with the previous commentators that there are many areas in Africa waiting for the final results of the Sudan polls in order to apply for the same in their own countries.
Due to the Chinese presence in this area there are speculations that if Southern Sudan gains independence, there is threat of renewed North-South fighting, as well as internecine conflict in the South.
The vote may also inspire separatists in Angola’s oil-rich Kabinda province, fomenting instability in another African country where China has significant economic interests and a large worker presence. Other places that might follow suite are Western Sahrawi, Somaliland, and some parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Preliminary results of the polls indicate that an independent state for southern Sudan’s eight million people would come into existence on July 9 under the peace agreement signed in 2005.
The latest incomplete and provisional figures that have been released show that 99.23 per cent of ballots in the region’s ten southern states – 3.36 million people – have plumped for separation, from 92.5 per cent of votes processed so far.
An earlier official website release from the independent electoral body calculated from 83.4 per cent of southern votes and all overseas and northern polls, showed 98.6 per cent were in favour of secession.
It is also rumoured that the Southern Sudan secession might have also been influenced by external pressure although the black people had suffered a lot under the Arab dominated administration from the North.
The Carter Center observation mission has congratulated the people of Sudan for the successful conduct of the historic referendum on self-determination, which was marked by an overwhelming turnout of enthusiastic voters during a peaceful and orderly seven-day voting period.
It says the referendum process implements a major pillar of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and represents the realization of the aspirations of the people of Southern Sudan to determine their political future.
The Center acknowledges that the referendum process to date is broadly consistent with international standards for democratic elections and represents the genuine expression of the will of the electorate.
According to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) and to reports of observers and others, it appears that the 60 percent turnout threshold required for a valid vote was reached several days before the end of the polling period.
In addition, based on early reports of vote counting results, it appears virtually certain that the results will be in favor of secession. The Carter Center has commended the SSRC and the Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau (SSRB) for their determination to implement a successful referendum despite very short timelines and logistical challenges.
It has also recognized the critical roles played by the United Nations Integrated Referendum and Elections Division (UNIRED), the International Foundation of Electoral Systems (IFES), and other international partners to assist Sudanese referendum authorities.
The Carter Center mission noted the following key findings during the referendum process: that the voting period between Jan. 9-15 resulted in an overwhelming turnout of voters who cast their ballots in an atmosphere that mixed enthusiasm.
While voter turnout in the South was overwhelming, nearing 100 percent in several locations, in the North, participation in registration and voter turnout was significantly lower.
Long distances and a lack of transportation to the referendum sites may have contributed to this result; the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) also encouraged Southerners living in the North to come home to register and vote.
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